In-depth Q&A: Does the world need hydrogen to solve climate change?

The term “low-carbon hydrogen” is essential here because while all hydrogen burns without producing greenhouse gas emissions, the climate impacts of different production methods varies considerably. Virtually all pure hydrogen today is used in applications such as oil refining and fertiliser production, not to heat buildings, drive trucks or generate electricity. The International Renewable Energy Agency suggests hydrogen could be the “missing link” in the global energy system, helping to cut emissions in all of these sectors that are difficult to electrify. Climate change has been a consistent theme in hydrogen discussions, but concerns about oil supply and price have dominated and road vehicles have been seen as the main target market.

In this case, hydrogen could be a useful form of energy storage, covering seasonal variation in renewable-heavy systems when batteries are insufficient. If green hydrogen is used to achieve the same goal, six or seven new 100MW electrolysers would have to be built every week until 2030. As it stands there is “virtually no dedicated hydrogen production for generating heat” and it is expected to “compete poorly” with biomass and CCS, according to the IEA.

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A review of the options from the UK Energy Research Centre concludes that “electrification and energy efficiency remain the two main strategies for decarbonising the building sector”. Moreover, heat pumps work by drawing warmth from outside air, multiplying the energy used to run them by two or three times, depending on device performance and ambient temperatures. BNEF’s Meredith Annex says using hydrogen for heat is an “expensive use case” and that the fuel “struggles” relative to heat pumps, even on a total cost-of-ownership basis. Internationally, there are at least 37 projects testing the blending of hydrogen into existing gas grids, thought to be safe up to 20% by volume without changes for consumers.

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This would be reduced further with the energy efficiency improvements required on the road to net-zero. He points to practical challenges for heat pumps, including the need to upgrade building energy efficiency, replace radiators and find space for hot water tanks and heat pump equipment. Some countries have already made rapid strides towards decarbonising the provision of heat, using electricity or district heating. IRENA states that this “can significantly help improve the economics of hydrogen production” and also provide revenues for renewable asset owners.

A report by consultancy Lucid Catalyst argues that the amount of hydrogen required to reach international climate targets is “far more than can be produced with renewables”, making nuclear-sourced hydrogen a necessity. According to the IEA, 76% of hydrogen comes from gas and 23% from coal – the latter mostly in China – with just 2% coming from electrolysis. Less than 0.7% of current hydrogen production is from low-carbon green or blue supplies. Demand for hydrogen has already been rising steadily for decades and stands at around 70Mt, according to the IEA. There is also uncertainty over how much low-carbon hydrogen will cost to make in the future and how easy it will be to successfully deploy the fuel at scale, across multiple sectors of the economy.

Hydrogen fuel cells have some vocal detractors, with the outspoken Tesla chief executive Elon Musk calling them “fool cells” and dismissing the technology as “mind-bogglingly stupid”. Hydrogen may still have a significant role to play for transport that is harder to decarbonise, from long-distance trucks to planes, but progress in many of these sectors is still in its early days. Moreover, the volume required to satisfy all the possible applications for low-carbon hydrogen would likely far exceed the amount available, even if production is significantly scaled up. Japanese and Australian ministers met earlier this year to agree on a future of hydrogen trade, to supply the resource-poor Asian nation with hydrogen. The Australian government has since backed a AUS$53bn ($39bn) “Asian Renewable Energy Hub” that will contribute to this.

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As it currently stands, grey hydrogen is the cheapest option, costing around $1/kg – if sourced from Middle East gas, but going as high as $3/kg in some regions. For China and India, both of which import most of their gas supplies, coal-based hydrogen tends to be the cheapest option. According to the report, the one model study that has evaluated the global warming potential of hydrogen arrived at a value of 4.3. It concluded that while the climate impact of hydrogen emissions is likely to be small, the issue merits further examination. The Climate Change Committee indicative pathway to net-zero for the UK relies primarily on blue hydrogen, although Carbon Brief understands updated guidance, expected in December, will point to a larger share for green. There is also “turquoise” hydrogen, generated as a by-product of methane pyrolysis, which uses heat to split fossil gas into hydrogen and carbon.

Influential organisations, including the IEA, Hydrogen Council and BP, have all revealed their visions for its future significance and others have heralded the 2020s as the “decade of hydrogen”. The illustrations, with numbered captions from one to three, show how hydrogen could be made, moved and used. But doing all these things with hydrogen would require staggering quantities of the fuel, which is only as clean as the methods used to produce it. Moreover, for every potentially transformative application of hydrogen, there are unique challenges that must be overcome. The top three performing blue-chip stocks through January 2023 were Salesforce , Disney and American Express , posting rallies of 26.7%, 24.9% and 18.4% through Jan. 31.

However, according to Fleischanderl, most steel still needs to come from virgin iron ore if it is to be a high enough grade for use in the automotive industry, for example. According to Our World in Data, energy-related emissions from iron and steel manufacture account for around 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen’s flexibility means it has a broad range of existing and potential applications in industry, including the production of fertilisers, steel and cement. It can be a chemical feedstock, a combustible fuel or a reactant to remove impurities. Another report, produced last year for the UK rail minister by the Rail Industry Decarbonisation Task Force, notes that “the future cost of hydrogen is unpredictable, especially given the lack of certainty on means of production”. A report for the European Commission in May proposed targets of 2035 and 2040 for the introduction of hydrogen-powered short- and medium-range flights, which in total cause two thirds of current aircraft emissions.

Nevertheless, there is widespread optimism about green hydrogen’s ability to compete, with the falling costs of renewable electricity frequently cited as the key driver. The role that green and blue hydrogen will play in decarbonising the economy will largely depend on how much both of them cost. The European Environmental Bureau described the commission’s support for blue hydrogen as a “gift to the fossil fuel industry”.

What is hydrogen and how could it help tackle climate change?

This led the group to conclude that by 2025 these strategies will likely cover countries representing over 80% of global GDP. Inefficient to produce, raising costs and requiring a larger energy supply overall, with even faster scaling up of clean energy production. Or it could fill a series of niches, depending on hydrogen availability, cost and performance relative to alternatives, for each potential application. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. But more recent evidence shows that demand for heat energy is some 40-50% lower than thought, at closer to 170 gigawatts rather than the peak of 300GW shown in the chart above.

While Lowes and others support large hydrogen trials to evaluate the potential of the fuel, they warn that this work should not be used as an excuse to avoid making progress with other options. Coalitions of companies in the UK have been working to test the idea for several years, with the aim of converting “significant parts of the UK gas grid to be 100% hydrogen”. The government’s recent climate plan aims to test hydrogen heat in a whole town by 2030.

There is considerable debate around blue hydrogen’s contribution to achieving net-zero emissions. Some see a significant role for it, while others say that at most it should be used as an interim solution while green hydrogen is scaled up. However, a recent study concluded that like blue hydrogen it would still generate substantial emissions due to the production of the gas used to provide the necessary heat for the process. Green hydrogen is produced by electrolysis, a process that https://day-trading.info/ uses an electrical current to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, using power generated from renewables. This label is sometimes misleadingly applied to hydrogen derived from grid electricity, which will only be as “renewable” as the grid itself is. Crucially, the climate targets of the Paris Agreement in 2015 are unlikely to be met unless decarbonisation reaches every corner of the economy, including “hard-to-decarbonise” sectors, such as steel production, shipping and aviation.

• A report by consultancy Lucid Catalyst argues that the amount of hydrogen required to reach international climate targets is “far more than can be produced with renewables”, making nuclear-sourced hydrogen a necessity.
• However, the rise of battery electric cars means they are widely viewed as the vehicles of a net-zero future.
• Start-up leisure specialist Canada Jetlines is exploring a potential partnership with Qatar Airways that could include non-stop flights between Toronto and Qatar’s capital city of Doha.
• In the most optimistic outlooks, hydrogen could soon power trucks, planes and ships.
• Not enough cars have been produced to bring prices down and the lack of demand means hydrogen refuelling stations, which are expensive, have not been widely installed.

Already the world’s largest producer and user of hydrogen, China has been developing hydrogen fuel cells for around 20 years. Former science minister Wan Gong, who pioneered the nation’s electric car strategy, has said it “should look into establishing a hydrogen society”. Extent of hydrogen support in a selection of countries, including national strategies, pilot and demonstration projects and policy discussions. Based on a figure from a report by Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechik GmbH and the World Energy Council’s German chapter. The pipeline for “green” hydrogen – produced using renewable electricity – is expanding rapidly, nearly tripling in just five months earlier this year. However, these projects still make a marginal contribution to the global energy system.

Another recent study is the International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives, published in September 2020. This sees hydrogen use meeting less than 7% of final energy demand in 2050, of which transport (44%), industry (28%), power (19%) and buildings (9%). The company’s more recent “new energy outlook” sees 800m tonnes of hydrogen being used in 2050 to meet a quarter of final global energy demand, while keeping warming to well-below 2C. Its “net-zero” pathway – which BP says is broadly in line with 1.5C scenarios – sees hydrogen use reaching 58 exajoules by 2050 and meeting around 15% of final global energy demand. For example, replacing fossil gas for building heat would rely on the availability of large quantities of low-carbon hydrogen and suitably upgraded infrastructure to distribute and safely burn the fuel. According to the IEA, heat use in buildings accounts for more than 20% of global final energy demand, including space heating, hot water and cooking.